By Jane Thomas
As the Alliance has written before Brexit has posed serious constitutional questions - indeed how the devolved nations have been treated through the passage of Brexit legislation has been vexatious, to say the least. This is true in Northern Ireland where the failure to recognise the importance of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement early on has led to failures to resolve the issues around the border. When the EU (Withdrawal) Bill was published in July 2017 the response from the Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was to issue a joint statement describing the bill as a “naked power-grab” and “an attack on the founding principles of devolution and could destabilise our economies”. They said the bill fails to return powers from the EU to devolved administrations “as promised”.
None of this has gone away and if anything, positions have hardened. The General Election that we now face on December 12th is quite clearly going to be about Brexit. For the devolved nations and regions, it will be about what Brexit has exposed about the nature and form of the devolution and constitutional settlements across the UK. The result will be a very different narrative about the election in the four constituent parts of the UK, making it harder than ever for the main political parties to get the right messaging and policy statements.
Off course devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in 1999 was intended to create new political systems that would be qualitatively different from Westminster. Devolution is there to reflect the specific political culture of each nation and different electoral systems across all four UK’s legislatures adds to the divergence.
But Brexit has changed the nature of the discourse in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland with a real sense of anger and frustration at the way Westminster has handled the relationship between London, the Scottish parliament and the Welsh Assembly. The lack of Stormont sitting has led to a real democratic deficit in Northern Ireland (with tensions exacerbated by the DUP supply and confidence arrangement with the government).
This matters. There are 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland, 59 in Scotland and 40 in Wales. Across the devolved areas, the mood shift and the political landscape shift is substantial since the 2016 referendum with Professor John Curtice reckoning at least 100 seats could be won by anything other than the 2 main parties. This may turn out to be a significant underestimation if the Liberal Democrats do as well as they claim they are going to do.
So it matters for the election outcomes but it also matters constitutionally. In Wales, Plaid Cymru have already shown they can work in an alliance (Brecon) and it is now “time for our politics to grow up” says Liz Saville Roberts from Plaid Cymru. The party regards the two big issues in the election as the EU and the opportunity to gain the tools for more independent Wales. Timely then is the recent publication of Justice in Wales for the People of Wales, an independent study commissioned by the Welsh government, recommending the transfer of powers of justice, policing and prisons from Westminster to Cardiff.
In Northern Ireland the 18 Constituencies are made up of 10 DUP seats, Sinn Féin with seven and one Independent. Already deals are being done with the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) deputy leader Nichola Mallon saying the objective "must be to return as many pro-Remain MPs who will take their seats and vote to stop Brexit" (and therefore have decided not to stand candidates in three seats for the first time in the parties history). The Ulster Unionist Party confirmed it will not field a candidate against Nigel Dodds.
Recent polling from Lucid Talk suggested over 70% of the electorate would vote to stay in the EU although the Ashcroft poll at the end of summer had this at 50%. Interestingly the Ashcroft poll also showed 51% in Northern Ireland backing reunification with the strongest support coming from the younger generation. With the recent vote on abortion and gay marriage (that no doubt will shore up some unionist votes) and the continued absence of Stormont, the discourse of this general election will be a million miles away from the narrative of the election in England.
And what of Scotland? Can the Conservatives hold onto the 13 seats they got in 2017? Most polling suggests that the SNP are on course to come close to wiping the Tories out in Scotland and Labour faring little better. With that, the possibility of another hung parliament and another referendum on Scotland’s departure then looms closer. Whatever the outcome, it will tell us much about Scotland’s direction of travel - and the travel of direction towards independence seems very much one way at the minute.
The collapse of Liberal Democrat and UKIP support in 2017 meant the main political parties of Labour and Conservatives gained seats they will not now get in 2019. The 2017 election also saw historic highs for both the DUP and Sinn Féin who managed to nudge out their more moderate counterparts in the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and SDLP respectively. That’s unlikely to be repeated. And according to Jo Swinson, the leader of Liberal Democrats, up to 60 seats may be up for a pro EU alliance across the UK ( although the Times reckons this may just be six) which will also see a few Independents gain seats no doubt.
Whatever the numbers this will be the election for the small parties and for the devolved nations to really flex their muscles and whilst rule may still be from London, the representation will be from those much closer to home. This will, in turn, bring to the fore the vexed question of the relationship of the devolved nations with Westminster and threaten to destabilise even further the state of the Union.
More than anything this general election is indeed in danger of becoming just a very English General Election ( and nothing like a very British coup) as the two main political parties battle it out for key seats in the North and the Midlands of England. So whilst the media obsesses with Workington man, there will be some very different conversations in large parts of the UK. Whatever the outcome on December 12th neither Brexit or unresolved questions on devolution will have gone away. Indeed as the new government picks up the pieces of Brexit on December 13th it could well be that it is Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland finally get their very own power grab.