Good afternoon,

The week before the summer holidays can sometimes be a quiet one, but not this week in Westminster. We’ve had the release of the Russia Report, the latest round of negotiations with the European Union, and the passage of the Trade Bill through its third reading in the House of Commons.

The House of Commons is now on recess until 1 September, with the House of Lords joining them on 29 July until 2 September, but we’ll be here sending you the updates you need to know.

Kathryn

In Politics

The Russia Report

Publication of the Intelligence and Security Committee’s report into Russia’s threat to the UK, following a controversial 9 month delay.
The government has tightened party discipline following the appointment of Julian Lewis as the chair of the ISC,
Whilst there is widespread evidence of Russia seeking to spread disinformation and influence Western political processes, no action was taken to mitigate this in the EU referendum, nor has any attempt been made to consider this retrospectively.

This week saw the long awaited release of the Intelligence and Security Committee’s (“ISC”) report into Russia’s threat to the UK (“The Russia Report”). The investigation, first announced in November 2017, was carried out in the context of concerns about Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election; the EU referendum; and UK political parties’ data.

Why is its publication controversial?

Following the completion of the report on 17 October 2019, there was significant disagreement about whether the report should be published prior to the general election on 12 December. Reporting from unnamed sources at the time claimed that the report would state that there was no evidence of Russian state interference in the outcome of the Brexit referendum, whilst Dominic Grieve, then the chairman of the ISC claimed that there was information that the public ought to see before the vote.

The election passed without its publication, following which new members needed to be appointed to the ISC. This took an unprecedented period of 6 months. The election of the committee chair was equally contentious, with Julian Lewis beating Chris Grayling, the Government’s chosen candidate, and subsequently having the Conservative whip removed.

What does the report say and why does it matter?

For security reasons the report is high level with very little detail, and what detail there is is frequently redacted. However, the report clearly states the following in relation to the possible spread of disinformation by Russia to influence democratic processes in the UK:

There is widespread evidence of Russia seeking to spread disinformation overseas.
There is a lack of ownership of this issue by any one body or security agency.
It is impossible to know the impact of any attempt to influence the EU referendum, but it is important to know whether such action took place.
Despite evidence of Russian influence in campaigns relating to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, no steps were taken to assess or mitigate the risk of the same happening for the EU referendum.
There has been no investigation into whether there was a disinformation campaign relating to the EU referendum.

It is unlikely that any such investigation will take place. The Government has responded to the report, denying the need for a retrospective assessment, with the Prime Minister stating in PMQs that the report was being jumped on by “Islington remainers” who want to claim that Russian interference is responsible for Brexit. Whilst the Leader of the Opposition stays quiet on the question of such an investigation, the question of national security and foreign interference is likely to loom large over all proceedings in the coming months, particularly in the context of increased concerns over the role of China.

The events preceding the publication of the Russia Report will also impact the next Parliamentary sitting. Given the size of the Conservative majority in the House of Commons, the removal of the whip from Julian Lewis won’t make any difference to the passage of Brexit related legislation. Furthermore, having been a member of the European Research Group and with a strong record of voting against a relationship with the European Union, it is unlikely that the loss of the Conservative whip will change his voting behaviour on Brexit. However the swift decision to discipline Dr Lewis sends a clear message to possible rebels within the party about the consequences of their actions. This reduces the likelihood of Conservative MPs defying the whip in upcoming votes, even where there is cross party support for an issue or amendment.

In Policy

Update: Trade Bill and Negotiations with the EU

The Trade Bill has passed its third reading in the House of Commons. Amendments relating to parliamentary scrutiny, agricultural standards, safeguarding the NHS and the protection of devolved competencies were voted against.
Compromise in the latest round of negotiations with the EU. The UK has accepted that there will be just one agreement governing all areas with an impartial arbitration system, whilst the EU has accepted the exclusion of the European Court of Justice from such a system.

The Trade Bill passed its third reading in the House of Commons on Monday and is now awaiting a date for a second reading in the House of Lords. The bill creates a framework for determining the UK’s trade policy after the end of the transition period. There were 21 new clauses and 30 amendments proposed (full text can be found here), with votes taking place in relation to:

New clause 5 - a government amendment to facilitate data sharing. Accepted and added to the bill.
New clause 4 - to increase parliamentary scrutiny of trade deals by requiring approval of negotiating objectives before starting negotiations and subsequent approval before signing draft agreements. Brought by the Conservative backbencher Jonathon Djanogly and supported by the Opposition parties, the amendment was voted against by 323 to 260.
New clause 11 - to ensure imported agricultural goods meet the same standards as those which apply to domestic products. The amendment was voted against 336 to 249.
New clause 17 - to prevent an international trade agreement from infringing on the provision of the NHS. The amendment was voted against 337 to 248.
Amendment 10 - to require the consent of the devolved government for any regulations touching on devolved competencies. The amendment was voted against 342 to 240.
Amendments 6-9 - government amendments regarding data sharing and to clarify the relationship between this and data protection legislation. The amendments passed 334 to 242.

It is likely that the issues of agricultural standards, parliamentary scrutiny, the NHS, and legislating in areas of devolved competency will return in the House of Lords. It will be worth watching the Agriculture Bill which will enter committee stage in the House of Lords on 28 July, having had similar failed amendments relating to agriculture standards in the Commons.

Meanwhile a further round of negotiations relating to the Future Relationship with the European Union took place this week. Press statements from Michel Barnier and David Frost have shown some areas of compromise starting to emerge whilst other roadblocks remain.

Progress:

The possibility of reaching agreement by the end of September.
No role for the European Court of Justice in arbitrating the agreement.
Acceptance of one overarching agreement with some form of independent dispute settlement mechanism.
Discussions on police and judicial cooperation.

Key areas of disagreement:

The level playing field including on State aid and standards.
Fishing policy.

Both the level playing field and fishing are long standing areas of contention between the UK and the EU and have been written about extensively. Nonetheless, agreement on the structure of the future relationship marks a significant step forward, with a Government source confirming their belief that a deal can be done before the end of the year.

Events

The EU Settlement Scheme in light of the pandemic - what needs to change?

6 August 11:00 - 12:30.

EU Citizens in the UK are put at higher risk of Covid-19 because of the ways in which the EU Settlement Scheme can be accessed and the status it confers. A letter from civil society organisations was recently sent to the Home Secretary outlining the ways in which the scheme needs to be adjusted to provide protection. This event, hosted by the Brexit Civil Society Alliance will provide further discussion of the problems with the scheme in light of Covid-19, what asks have been sent to the Home Secretary, and the steps different organisations and individuals can take.

Our speakers will be: Caitlin Boswell, JCWI; Chris Desira, Seraphus; Luke Piper, the3million; and Ollie Persey, Public Law Project.

More details and sign up here.

Recommend reading

House of Commons Library, The “Internal Market” and the Union

Peter Schleiter and Thomas Fleming, LSE blog, Should the government be able to suspend parliament?