Good morning,

Can a deal be done? July has been and gone but the negotiations continue. We look at whether it can be agreed in time. Civil society organisations sent a joint letter to the Home Secretary in June urging for improvements to the EU Settlement Scheme in light of Covid-19. The Home Office responded this week but offered little substantive change. As usual we have a selection of recommended reading for your Friday.

Enjoy,
Jacob

In Politics

Can There Be A Deal?

PM’s July deal deadline missed but Summer negotiations continue
Sticking points on level playing field continue but with some potential to compromise
If a deal is agreed it is potentially a lightweight deal

Is a trade deal between the UK and the EU possible? This is a question on every trade negotiator's lips. Time is ticking down and the July deadline set by the Prime Minister has passed without a deal coming to pass. Remember the key deadline for a deal is not 31st December 2020 but the 31st October 2020. Another Halloween deadline to keep negotiators up at night.

The negotiations are continuing through the summer with Round 7 of talks to take place in Brussels from the 17th August to 21st August. The two parties have pencilled in meetings between the Chief Negotiators for the 24th and 31st August too. The EU has published a draft timeline for the ratification of a deal that sees the final text of a draft agreement to be agreed between the EU and the UK by early October.

The progress so far has led to little being agreed between the two parties. After Round 5 of talks in July, David Frost (the chief negotiator for the UK) confirmed that the two sides had not reached an agreement of “the early understanding of the principles underlying any agreement” as aimed for in the meetings.

Ultimately there are still large gaps between the positions of each side on the level playing field and fisheries. A key sticking point in the level playing field is rules on state aid, however signals have come from the EU that they may compromise on this to move the talks further.

If a deal can happen it will depend on compromise from both sides. The Financial Times has outlined the various areas where compromise will be needed.The House of Commons Library has a full briefing looking into whether an agreement is possible.

A rush of compromises in autumn could mean a deal is agreed, however if a deal is done at all it will likely be a lightweight deal. Barnier has said that the UK has lowered what it is aiming for and in his view is seeking a “low-quality, low-profile” agreement between the two parties. While this prevents a no-deal Brexit we don’t yet know what this will mean for rights and standards in the UK. The devil will be in the detail and ideally it will be published for all to understand and adapt to with plenty of time before the end of the year.

In Policy

EU Settlement Scheme In Light Of Covid-19

Covid-19 highlighted and exacerbated problems with the EU Settlement Scheme, which needs urgent changes
Over 30 civil society organisations wrote to Home Secretary outlining concerns
Home Office response offers little substantive improvement of the scheme

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted and exacerbated problems that lie within the EU Settlement Scheme and changes need to be made as a result to protect EU citizens from further risk. At the end of June over 30 civil society organisations, which was coordinated by the Brexit Civil Society Alliance and includes signatories from across all four nations of the UK, sent a joint letter to the Home Secretary outlining how the scheme needs to adapt to the new circumstances. Read the full letter here.

Changes needed include:

Make pre-settled status an automatic ‘right to reside’ so that EU citizens and non-EU family members can access social security benefits and homelessness assistance
Make a provision that any breaks in ‘continuous residency’ caused by COVID-19 do not affect EU citizens’ and family members’ ability to secure status through the EUSS or obtain British citizenship
Adjust the EUSS application process to ensure that it complies with the Withdrawal Agreement and equality law so that vulnerable EU citizens and family members are not put at unnecessary risk of infection from COVID-19

In order to do this the organisations urge the Home Office to:

Suspend any requirement that puts applicants at greater risk of COVID-19.
Introduce greater flexibility in the evidence requirements, including allowing digital copies of documents to be sent securely to the Home Office to avoid the need for them to be posted.
Undertake an Equality Impact Assessment of the EUSS addressing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The response from the Home Office, which can be read in full here, does not address the commitments requested in the organisation's original letter. There is no commitment to having an Equality Impact Assessment to address the impacts of Covid-19 on EU citizens access to the scheme. No commitment is made to bringing changes to prevent applicants being at a greater risk to Covid-19 or to introduce measures enabling greater flexibility to provide evidence during an application.

The Home Office letter states that they “continue to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic closely and we will make appropriate adjustments to requirements where necessary. The Home Office is continuing to keep the situation under constant review in line with public health guidance".

When addressing concerns about Covid-19 causing breaks in continuous residence of applicants they respond “We are taking a pragmatic approach to ensure individuals are not penalised for issues arising from the COVID-19 pandemic" but offer few substantive commitments beyond pointing to preexisting available help. The letter does point to the “57 voluntary and community sector organisations across the UK which can offer assistance” that do crucial work in helping vulnerable applicants access the scheme.

Overall the Home Office has not offered substantial solutions to the concerns raised by this joint letter. With the pandemic looking likely to continue for months to come, and a potential no-deal Brexit on the horizon, the Government needs to do more to improve the EU Settlement Scheme and protect citizens’ rights.

Recommended Reading

Séamas O'Reilly writes about John Hume in
the Guardian
The New York Times looks at a US - UK trade deal under a Biden presidency
Liz Truss is warned she may face a Conservative rebellion if farmers are not protected in a US trade deal