Out Of Sight. Out Of Mind?

 
 
 

Good afternoon,

This week we look at how Brexit, coupled with Covid-19 has added further strain on the relationship between the government and devolved administrations. We outline some key Brexit dates for your diary, some of which are coming earlier than you may think. As usual we have a collection of recommended reading for your Friday. You can listen to a narrated version of this bulletin at the play button below.

Enjoy,
Jacob

PLAY

In Politics

What happens next to the Union?

  • Brexit and Covid-19 adds further strain on the union

  • Westminster attempting to pull devolved powers back to London

  • Next year has lots of devolved elections posing potential issues for Johnson

The union between England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland has been through a lot with two referendums that have presented significant and ongoing questions about the future of the United Kingdom. 

Earlier this week Peter Foster of the FT reported that the Scottish government is threatening to fight the UK government in the court system over legislation that would enable Westminster to force food standards, as a result of trade deals, on Scotland and Wales. Included in the proposed legislation are policy areas, such as food safety, agriculture, and the environment, that are currently under the devolved administrations remit. Pulling them back to Westminster would be a reversal of the devolved settlement. 

Centralising these powers back to Westminster in order to use them as bargaining chips in trade deals, with the USA for instance, raises significant questions of accountability and who gets a say in trade negotiations. Trade deals are already an area where the UK executive has significant power. The UK is far behind many countries, including the USA, in democratic control of deals. MPs in the UK cannot vote on deals, cannot enforce a negotiation mandate and have no powers to amend a deal. The votes on the Withdrawal Agreement were unique and a result of amendments to previous Brexit legislation. 

Throughout the Brexit process there has been a significant difference of approach and goals between the devolved administrations and the government in Westminster. Most recently the Welsh and Scottish First Ministers each requested the UK Government to ask for an extension to the transition period, which as we know, was rejected by the UK government . Another example was when the UK government went ahead with passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, despite all three devolved administrations refusing consent to it. A further case in point was when Boris Johnson agreed a deal that would put a customs border in the Irish Sea, a prospect that Theresa May argued no British Prime Minister could accept, and which had widespread opposition in Northern Ireland. 

Since the UK left the EU this year, Covid-19 has further emphasised that Westminster is not working in tandem with devolved administrations. Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland have all taken different approaches to the pandemic from Westminster (and therefore England). Wales shut its border to travellers from England to help prevent the spread of the disease. Meanwhile, as outlined by Jane Thomas, during Covid-19 there is growing support for an independent Scotland and ambivalence from England on the future of the union. This ambivalence to the devolved nations is emphasised by the approach the UK government has taken to Brexit and Covid-19.

After the 1st January 2021 we will be in a new and unique relationship with the EU. Many, from civil society, business, and individuals, will need to adapt to this. A rising problem for Johnson may be the upcoming Scottish parliamentary elections, Welsh parliamentary election, local elections, and eight different mayoral elections (London and the combined authority mayors). A lot of elections fought on a devolved and local basis all heavily influenced by national events with outcomes affecting the union. A majority for the SNP in Scotland could lead to another Scottish independence referendum.

The UK government needs to look further ahead than it is now. It has the opportunity to renew relations between the devolved administrations and go further by properly involving the devolved administrations, and civil society in the Brexit process. The Institute for Government has looked in depth at how the UK Government can renew these relations and recommendations include an overhaul of governance arrangements with a “greater commitment to joint decision making” and commitments to transparency and accountability. There is also the opportunity to put intergovernmental machinery on a statutory basis by legislating for commitments on information sharing and decision making. These are moves that have been resisted before, but looking ahead with the future of the union in mind they could provide the relationship renewal needed.

In Policy

Brexit Timeline

  • Key dates for your Brexit diaries

  • October 31st is the practical deadline for a deal

  • Summer and potential conference recess reduces time for scrutiny

As we passed the deadline to extend the transition period on the 1st July we are now headed towards the end of the transition period the 31st December 2020. While this is the deadline for the end of the transition period there are some crucial Brexit dates before then to be aware of. 

Week beginning 13th July - Meeting of chief negotiators in Brussels

20th to 24th July - Round 5 of negotiations

22nd July - House of Commons summer recess starts

Week beginning 27th July - Meeting of chief negotiators in London

17th to 21st August - Round 6 of negotiations 

1st September - House of Commons summer recess ends

September/October - Rapid movement on deal negotiations. As August is a significant holiday month progress is likely to be minimal during summer 

Autumn - There remains five key Brexit bills yet to receive royal assent, which includes the Immigration Bill that passed its Commons stages last week. The bills include: 

  • Trade Bill - report stage dates to be announced

  • Agriculture Bill - this week had line by line examination in the Lords

  • Fisheries Bill - second reading in the Commons dates to be announced

  • Immigration Bill - passed Commons second reading in Lords to be announced

  • Environment Bill - report stage stage scheduled for 29th September


29th September - Environment Bill report stage 

Late September to Early October - Conference recess. Labour and the Conservatives have both cancelled in person events but announced online events

15th to 16th October  - European Council summit

31st October - real deadline for a deal to be agreed. As Catherine Barnard from the UK in a changing Europe, outlines on this episode of Talking Politics, if the deal agreed between the UK and the EU is a Mixed Agreement then the deal will need approval by both the EU parliament and member state parliaments. Therefore unlike the Withdrawal Agreement it cannot be left to the last minute to agree. This means the latest real date for a deal to be agreed is the 31st October. Furthermore there is always the chance that member states parliaments won’t simply rubber stamp the deal. 

3rd November - USA Presidential election. Depending on how the polls are looking running up to this could influence the UK’s thinking on a US-UK trade deal and therefore their rhetoric on the EU-UK trade deal

23rd to 26th November - Potential dates for the EU parliament to vote on the deal

November - Comprehensive spending review 2020. This was due to be completed by July but due to Covid-19 has been delayed. The Institute of Chartered Accountants predict it will be released along with the Budget in November. Details of the UK Shared Prosperity Fund are due to be included in the spending review

31st December - Transition period ends

1st January 2021 - If agreed, the new relationship between the UK and the EU comes into effect

In Events

Covid-19 Feminist Recovery Plan Launch by Women’s Policy Group NI

Online event
Wednesday 29th July at 14:00
RSVP: rachel.powell@wrda.net

“Given the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on women globally, the Women’s Policy Group have prepared a COVID-19 Feminist Recovery Plan for Northern Ireland. This plan sets out WPG recommendations for recovering from COVID-19, as elected representatives and decision-makers must take into consideration the institutionalised inequalities that exist, and co-develop recovery planning with the communities affected. These recommendations will cover economic justice, health, social justice, equality, the implications of Brexit and examples of international best practice.”

“A range of women from marginalised communities in NI will be speaking at this event on their experiences of COVID-19, alongside an overview of some of the recommendations.”

“The full WPG Feminist Recovery Plan can be downloaded here.”

Recommended Reading