Good Morning,
The UK has formally said it will not seek an extension to the transition period. This means the UK leaves the transition period at the end of December with or without a deal. Meanwhile we have updated our report ‘Rights After Brexit: What Will Change?’, exploring what the current and future status of our rights are. As usual some recommended reading at the end for your Friday.
Enjoy,
Jacob
In Politics
The UK Has Formally Rejected An Extension To The Transition Period.
Michael Gove formally confirmed the UK will not extend the transition period
Boris Johnson argues a deal can be done by the end of July
UK could face no-deal in December due to tight time frame and continuing disagreements
On the 12th June, in a Joint Committee meeting, Michael Gove formally confirmed that the UK will not extend the transition period. The immediate implication of this is that the UK will leave the transition period when it ends on the 31st December 2020. What happens next will be one of two things: the UK has agreed a deal with the EU and this comes into effect or the UK hasn’t agreed a deal with the EU and the UK leaves the transition in a no-deal Brexit.
The UK has faced a potential no-deal Brexit multiple times before. A no-deal Brexit could see a regression in rights, a hardening of the border on the island of Ireland, and weaker standards with gaps in enforcement of them. We outlined the issues facing civil society in a no-deal Brexit in a briefing to Parliamentarians last year. For organisations there are a variety of things they would need to do to prepare, our guide last year covered some of the things organisations would need to do.
Will we be in no-deal territory come December? This is hard to say. This week there were positive headlines saying that the UK and the EU are edging closer towards a deal as six weeks of intensive talks begin. However, the EU Council President warns that the EU isn't in a hurry to agree to a rushed and bad deal and the ‘level playing field is essential’. As outlined by the Institute for Government there are significant differences between the two parties on the level playing field.
Boris Johnson was in the press saying that he doesn’t see why a deal cannot be signed off by the end of July. However this is based on the need for a “a bit of oomph in the negotiations”, rather than any clear will to change the government’s red lines in the negotiations. The UK Government appears to believe that running the negotiations to the wire will create pressure enough to change the mind of the EU and agree a deal.
It is difficult at this moment to tell if we will be in no-deal territory come December but it is clear that the UK Government is willing to entertain the idea publicly and has ruled out any transition extension. It is crucial to remember that unlike the Article 50 extension process the transition period extension process is a more complicated one. That being said, it is possible that the two sides may agree for an extension later down the line to finalise the details of the negotiations or to allow more time for ratification.The UK in a Changing Europe has explored this in more detail here, in which they conclude that “clearly, one should not underestimate the ingenuity of EU lawyers or their ability to come up with some imaginative solution if need be - particularly if governments are demanding this. However it remains the case that it is far from certain a legal basis for post 30 June extension could be found”.
In Policy
Rights After Brexit: What Will Change?
Brexit Civil Society Alliance published an updated report titled Rights After Brexit: What Will Change?
Few things have changed while the UK is in the transition period
Significant changes to a wide range of rights can happen once the transition period ends
The Brexit Civil Society Alliance have published an updated report into what will happen to our rights after Brexit. Authored by Kathryn Sturgeon, it looks at what has happened since exit day, during the transition period, and what's coming in the future relationship.
The UK left the EU on the 31st January 2020 but as it moved into the transition period many rights remains the same. The first immediate loss of rights for the UK was the right to vote in the political institutions of the EU. As the UK had left the EU it lost all MEPs and representation. There have been changes to access to some benefits for EU citizens which depends on their settled status. Where bigger changes may arise is from the 1st January 2021 as EU law retained in domestic UK law could be changed by UK ministers.
Looking forward, the future of rights depends on the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Currently there is a lot of uncertainty, including uncertainty as to whether a deal will be agreed, as the shape of what is agreed could impact on rights.
Workers’ rights for instance will continue to exist as they currently are because they are retained rights form the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. However after the transition period the UK Government could introduce legislation to repeal these rights. Workers’ rights would likely be affected by a level playing field if one were agreed in the future trade agreement however, the UK has repeatedly ruled this out.
Fundamental rights could change after the transition period is over. The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 explicitly excluded the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights and therefore it was not retained in UK domestic legislation. A key effect in the UK of this exclusion is that after the transition period these rights lose status as ‘fundamental’ and can then be repealed by the Government depending on the political winds of the time.
These are a few examples of what is covered by the report. It examines in further detail EU citizens’ rights, voting rights, workers’ rights and more of what may come. You can download the full report from our website here.
Recommended Reading
Committee on the Administration of Justice has a useful resource about the new EUSS guidelines in Northern Ireland.
Brigid Fowler of the Hansard Society looks at how the merge of DFID and FCO reduces scrutiny here
The House of Lords EU Environment Sub-Committee has launched an inquiry into the Environment and the level playing field here
Raoul Ruparel on the joint economic shock of Brexit and Covid-19 here