Linen and Silk

 
 
 

Good afternoon,

This week marks four years since the 2016 referendum. This has been a long winding journey that is still not complete. We look at where it might go next with the new developments in the negotiations, and what the UK government needs to be ready for exiting in December. As usual we have a range of recommended reading. Unusually for this week we also have an audio version of the bulletin (unabridged narration by yours truly) for those who prefer text in audio format. Click the big play button to listen.

Enjoy,
Jacob

PLAY

In Politics

Four Years Ago

  • Future relationship negotiations start meeting face to face

  • Aim to make rapid progress in negotiations

  • EU says there could be some compromise on the level playing field

This week marks four years since the referendum with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ and the UK voted to leave the European Union. Since that day we have changed the Prime Minister twice, had two general elections, three extensions to Article 50, and one day where the UK left the EU. 

The political landscape of the UK has been ever changing since the vote to leave the EU but it is not yet over. The UK has left the EU and it is currently negotiating the future relationship between the two but it still has a lot to do. Next week the two sides will meet face to face in Brussels, the first time since Covid-19 struck.

David Frost, the UK chief negotiator has published the agenda for next week's talks and has said that ‘these meetings will be smaller and focused on seeing whether we can begin to make genuine and rapid progress towards an agreement.’This move to rapid progress comes after the UK formally confirmed it will not seek an extension to the transition period.

There remains the core sticking points of sovereignty and geography when it comes to agreeing a deal. The EU continues to argue that because the UK is geographically close to the EU, it could undercut the EU market by weakening regulations. That is why the EU wants the UK to sign up to a level playing field, to create a floor where regulations, such as workers rights and environmental standards, could not fall below. 

A concern that the UK continues to press is that a level playing field provision might lead to conflict resolution happening in the jurisdiction of EU institutions therefore threatening the sovereignty of the UK. 

Things may be shifting though. Earlier this week Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, signalled potential flexibility from the EU around the level playing field. According to the Financial Times Barnier has said “We are ready to work on operational and clever compromise but not at the price, never at the price, of any unravelling of the single market. Never.” This new position reflects a general optimism between both parties that progress on a deal can be achieved.

For rights and standards key questions about enforcement mechanisms, what is compromised, and what is protected all remain. Until there is clarity there is still a chance of no deal, where the UK will be able to regress on rights and standards as much as it wishes.

In Policy

Charities Need Certainty As Much As Business

  • Civil society organisations face difficult economic challenges due to Covid-19

  • There remains lots of uncertainty about the post-Brexit landscape

  • Government needs to provide clarity and support to charities on the post-Brexit landscape

Covid-19 has an unprecedented crisis for the country and many charities have been on the frontline in responding to the crisis. Micheal Gove has formally confirmed that the UK will not request an extension to the transition period, meaning the UK will for all intents and purposes be out of the EU come 31st December 2020. Knowing this civil society needs urgent clarity and support from the Government about what will come next and how organisations can prepare for it.

Carol Botten, chief executive of Voluntary Organisations Network North East, has written about this need for clarity and certainty. In her piece she highlights the economic insecurity faced by the sector “Sobering results from a survey recently carried out by the Voluntary Organisations Network North East shows that over 900 voluntary organisations across the North East may close as a result of the crisis.”.

This comes at a time when the economy contracted by 20% in April due to Covid-19 and the future of the economy continues to be uncertain. If a deal is not agreed then the UK leaves the transition period without a deal. A no-deal Brexit has been estimated to lead to an 8.1% reduction in the UK’s GDP over a decade. 

These figures mean that civil society organisations are under intense pressure to both help those most in need, while at the same time having less income to do so. Covid-19 has already squeezed incomes as the Institute of Fundraising has highlighted, 43% of charities have reported an increase in demand for their services but 48% have seen a decline in voluntary income. In continuing economic uncertainty this can get worse. 

Over the next few weeks and months the Government needs to clarify what is coming down the road in terms of Brexit, and how it will support civil society organisations to adapt to the post-Brexit landscape. As Carol asks “When will the long-awaited consultation about the UKSPF be published? How will the government be in a position to replace EU funding in light of the current crisis?”. As well as funding there will be changes to our regulatory landscape such as the new Office for Environmental Protection that is yet to be established as it is reliant on the Government passing the Environment Bill, a key Brexit Bill.

Organisations across the English regions and devolved administrations need to be ready for the new landscape in January and the Government needs to provide clarity, certatiny, and support for organisations well in advance of January so that organisations can continue to do their crucial work.

Recommended Reading