Crunch Time

 
 
 

Good afternoon,

This week trade negotiations potentially enter their final phase as they continue at an intense schedule. The October deadline is passing but talks are scheduled for next week. Meanwhile the Internal Market Bill continues to cause problems for the UK Government. We outline upcoming events and as usual we have recommended reading for your Friday.

Enjoy
Jacob

In Politics

EU - UK Trade Negotiations

  • Crunch time for a deal as October 31st deadline passes this weekend

  • Talks are progressing but state aid and fisheries are still stumbling blocks

  • Potential for a deal to be agreed next week

This week has been another crunch week as the negotiations between the UK and the EU have continued. The intensive talks between the two partners about the future relationship that happened this week are likely to go on to next week as well, missing the October 31st deadline. The Commons has been in recess this week so there has been minimal political discussion about the potential for a deal in the House.

Little has been announced about the content of the talks however this is likely a good sign as no big dramatic walkouts by either side means that both parties are happy for them to continue. Bloomberg has reported this week that progress is indeed happening. If that is the case, then the outlines of a deal could be seen next week as the next stage will see “the talks will move to Brussels, where, if negotiators can narrow their remaining differences sufficiently by Nov. 3, the ball will then pass to U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for them to broker a final compromise." The detail of this would be crucial though and while the October 31st deadline looks to be passed there is still not much time for the European Parliament to ratify any deal.

The UK in a Changing Europe have produced a new explainer on the European Parliament ratification process that can be read here.

While Von der Leyen has said the talks are making progress, the key obstacles of state aid and fisheries still remain. Access to British waters has become a particular issue with disagreement between President Macron and Prime Minister Johnson, EU states are pushing for continued access to British fisheries but for the UK Government control over fisheries is a key political issue.

It is important to note whether or not a future trading deal is agreed the future relationship between the EU and the UK will look incredibly different. In either scenario the UK will no longer be in the Single Market, or the customs union. It will not be able to apply for EU funding, freedom of movement will end and EU citizens will need to apply to the EU Settlement Scheme. There is lots of change coming for everyone to get ready for, including the Government, and only two months remaining to do so.

In Policy

Internal Market Bill

  • The Internal Markets Bill continues its passage through the Lords this week

  • The Bill could cause issues for the UK Government’s hope of a US trade deal if Biden is elected President

  • The deadline for the UK to respond to EU legal proceedings, based on the Bill, passes this weekend

This week the Internal Market Bill has been progressing through the House of Lords. It is currently in the Committee stage with further days planned next week. The Internal Market Bill presents multiple challenges including the potential centralisation of the replacement of EU funds, the threat to rule of law, and potential to undermine UK’s standards in a number of areas, including housing, health and environmental regulations. We have produced a full briefing for the Bill’s passage through the Lords available on our website here.

The Bill's proposal to undermine the Withdrawal Agreement by disapplying parts of the Northern Ireland protocol could present difficulties for the UK Government when trying to negotiate a trade deal with the US. Presidential contender Joe Biden has warned that the Bill would undermine the Northern Ireland peace process and he would not sign a trade deal if these bits of the Bill were not removed.

Further complicating matters is the legal action started by the EU over these sections in the Bill. At the beginning of October the EU began legal proceedings against the UK, giving the UK one month to respond to a letter of formal notice. This deadline runs out at the end of this month which means that depending on the UK Government's response there could be further complications coming next week for the Bill. Interestingly, the Times reported this week that the Government always intended to put forward these controversial clauses as a negotiating tactic with the EU and will likely drop the clauses once the Bill returns to the Commons in late November or early December.

Whatever happens next, the coming weeks will be pivotal as peers continue to pressure the Government on a number of issues related to the Internal Market Bill.

In Parliament

Watch Commons and Lords debates and Committee sessions free on parliamentlive.tv

House of Commons

Wednesday 4th
Oral Questions - Northern Ireland (11:30am)

Consideration of Lords amendments - Agriculture Bill

Consideration of Lords amendments - Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill

House of Lords

Monday 2nd
Legislation - United Kingdom Internal Market Bill - committee stage (day 3)

Tuesday 3rd
Common Frameworks Scrutiny Committee - Oral evidence - Post-Brexit common frameworks (at 10:30 am) Location: Virtual meeting (webcast)

Wednesday 4th
Legislation - United Kingdom Internal Market Bill - committee stage (day 4)

Recommended Reading