In the week a Brexit deal was meant to be reached, internal chaos and fighting have dominated Downing Street. It has concluded with Lee Cain, the Director of Communications and a key ally of Dominic Cummings resigning. Whilst Cummings denies rumours of his own resignation, it seems agreed that he will be gone by Christmas (although apparently, that was always the plan). With much of the Vote Leave faction on the way out of Downing Street, what next for Brexit? For the time being, the Prime Minister is continuing to play hardball and although some estimate that a deal will come sooner or later, the EU remains less optimistic. More on all of this below and what remains to be done before the transition period ends.

In Politics

Countdown’s on for Cummings and Brexit

A deal with the EU is yet to be reached, despite less than 50 days remaining of the transition period
The House of Lords defeated the Government with an overwhelming majority to remove controversial clauses in the UK Internal Market Bill

Leaving aside internal wranglings of No 10, the future relationship between the UK and the EU remains undetermined. Negotiations, according to EU diplomats, have not progressed significantly and the general consensus seems to be that the decision lies with Downing Street. With 49 days left to the end of the transition period, time is not on anyone’s side but especially not the UK who needs to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, set up new post-Brexit customs systems and get businesses ready. EU officials say moving the deadline for agreeing a deal even further makes ratification for Brussels before the end of the year near impossible. Remember that the European Parliament and Council need time to approve the deal. That is why the end of October was always thought to be the final deadline for agreeing on a deal, giving enough time for the EU to ratify it.

In other Brexit news, the House of Lords voted overwhelmingly in favour of removing the controversial clauses of the UK Internal Market Bill this week. These clauses represent a direct threat to the rule of law, by disapplying parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, specifically the Northern Ireland Protocol. The protocol was at the heart of protecting the Belfast/Good Friday agreement and the principle of non-diminution of rights as the UK exits the EU. If the UK government is already stating that they are prepared to renege on its commitments under this agreement, before the transition period has even ended, then it bodes poorly for the future of other elements of that agreement as we move forward. And while it may be overestimated how much a Biden win in last week’s US election will mean for a future UK-US trade deal, Biden’s opposition to the Internal Market Bill could prove difficult for the Government. Number 10 are still holding the line though- in response to the Lord’s overwhelming rejection of the offending clauses in the Bill, a spokesperson for the Government said they would “retable these clauses when the Bill returns to the Commons”.

In Policy

Preparations for the end of the transition period are nowhere near ready

Preparations for the end of the transition period far from being ready
National Audit Office concludes that “significant risks remain”

Jane Thomas (previous Alliance coordinator) has an excellent piece in the Yorkshire Bylines on just how unprepared the UK government is for the end of the transition period, “despite the decision to leave having been made over four years ago”. The National Audit Office (the UK’s independent public spending watchdog) concluded in their recent report that although progress for EU exit has been made, “significant risks remain”, which “could have been avoided...had the government addressed sooner issues such as expanding the customs intermediary market, developing a solution for roll-on, roll-off (RORO) traffic, upscaling customs systems and determining the requirements for infrastructure to enforce a new compliance regime”. In other words, much needed infrastructure at the UK’s borders is not yet in place to deal with the changing ways that goods will be entering and leaving the country. Meanwhile, the promised rollover of 15 trade deals with countries not in the EU has still not been agreed.

This is going to have a significant impact come 1 January with only 12.5% of businesses feeling ready for the end of the transition period. Of course, as the Alliance and over 50 civil society groups warned in June, Covid-19 has naturally taken a huge amount of government resources and energy away from Brexit. The sensible course of action would have been to extend the transition period as both the UK and the EU grapple with the pandemic. As our warnings were not heeded, we wait and see whether the refusal to extend the transition period will come back to bite the UK government.

In Parliament

Watch Commons and Lords debates and Committee sessions free on parliamentlive.tv

House of Commons

Tuesday 17 November Environment Bill - Debate (2.00- 5.00 pm) Wednesday 18 November
Scottish Affairs Committee - Oral evidence - UK Internal Market Bill (1.30-4.30 pm) Thursday 19 November Welsh Affairs Committee - Oral Evidence- Brexit and Trade: implications for Wales (8.40- 11.30) Oral questions - International Trade (9.30) Environment Bill - Debate (11.30 am- 5.00 pm)

House of Lords

Monday 16 November

EU Goods Sub-Committee - Oral Evidence - Preparations of port and Channel Tunnel operators for the end of the Transition (10.30-12.30)

Tuesday 17 November

EU Security and Justice Sub-Committee - Oral evidence - Post-Brexit police cooperation (10.00 am- 12.00 pm)

Common Frameworks Scrutiny Committee - Oral Evidence - Post-Brexit common frameworks (10.45 am- 12.30 pm)

Wednesday 18th November

UK Internal Market Bill - Report Stage (Day 1)

In Events

Deal or no deal: are we ready for the end of the transition period?

When: 3rd December, 15.30-16.30
Where: Zoom
Register here

As the UK continues to grapple with the impacts of the pandemic, the uncertainty around Brexit, and what happens next continues.

Regardless of whether a deal on the future relationship is agreed, the UK will still need to implement a whole host of changes to accommodate our exit from the European Union, from implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol, replacing EU funding to ensuring food and medicine supply lines run smoothly after exit day.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing pandemic, how prepared is the UK for the end of the transition period? And if a deal is agreed, what will it look like and what does it mean for our rights and standards?

Joining us to answer these questions and more is:

Katy Hayward, Professor of Political Sociology (Queen’s University Belfast) and Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe
David Lawrence, Senior Political Adviser, Trade Justice Movement
Maddy Thimont Jack, Senior Researcher, Institute for Government
Charles Whitmore, Co-ordinator of the Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit

This event is part of the ‘Brexit, Devolution & Rights' webinar series, co-hosted by the Brexit Civil Society Alliance, the Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit, the Human Rights Consortiums in Scotland and Northern Ireland and SULNE. The webinar series will explore what the next stages of Brexit and beyond mean for fundamental rights across the 4 parts of the UK.

The session will be held on Zoom and the link to join the meeting will be in send on the day of the event. Please note that the webinar will be delivered in English.

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