Good afternoon,
This week the Withdrawal Agreement Bill became the Withdrawal Agreement Act and therefore, pending ratification by the EU, the UK will leave the EU on the 31st January. While this feels to some like the end this is just the beginning of a complicated negotiation. This week we go over the bills passage through Parliament, what next and what the Government has signalled it will look for in the future relationship.
Enjoy,
Jacob
In Politics
A Bill Becomes an Act
Withdrawal Agreement Bill has now been passed into law and is the Withdrawal Agreement Act
The Lords passed key amendments to the Bill but these were rejected by the Commons
EU to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement on the 29th January 2020
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) has now become the Withdrawal Agreement Act, and pending ratification by the European Parliament on the 29th January, the UK will leave the EU on the 31st January and enter the transition period.
The transition period is the 11-month long time period where the UK and EU will negotiate what the future relationship between them look like.
While the WAB has now been passed and has become an Act, its passage this week was not straightforward.
This week the House of Lords defeated the Government and passed four amendments. These included:
Clause 7 on EU Settlement Scheme
Clause 26 on the interpretation of retained EU law
Clause 37 on the family reunification of refugee children
Clause 38 on parliamentary sovereignty
A full insight on these amendments by the House of Commons Library is here.
These amendments would have provided key improvements to the WAB. We wrote last week about Clause 26 and the damning report issues by the Constitution Committee in the House of Lords, available here if you missed it, where they warned that it was inappropriate for courts other than the Supreme Court and the Scottish High Court of Justiciary to have power to depart from retained EU case law. The Lords amendment would have required lower courts to refer it up to these courts instead.
Meanwhile the Lords amendment on Clause 7 would have provided crucial physical documentation to EU citizens who have settled status through the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS). Something organisations across civil society have called for. Our joint open letter to the party leaders on how to improve the EUSS is here. This is a key change that would have provided EU citizens with a greater sense of security over their future.
Sadly, all four of these amendments were voted down by the Government when they went back to the Commons. This means the WAB became the Withdrawal Agreement Act without these crucial changes. There are still opportunities in the future to achieve some of these changes as other key Brexit bills will come to the Commons, however the Government could have taken this opportunity to address the issues now.
What's Next?
UK due to leave EU on 31st January 2020 at 11pm UK time
UK has until 1st July 2020 to request an extension to the transition period
No-deal Brexit on 31st December 2020 if no deal is agreed
With the Withdrawal Agreement Bill having now passed through Parliament and receiving Royal Assent, it is time to look forward to what will come next. There will be Brexit-related bills that the Government will bring forward on subjects like agriculture, immigration and trade but the overriding issue going forward is the future relationship between the EU and the UK.
The House of Commons Library (always an excellent resource) has produced a full Brexit timetable detailing all the events that led up to today and what is likely to come down the line. However, key dates for your diary going forward are:
31st January 2020 - The UK leaves the EU at 11pm UK time. There will be no bongs from Big Ben.
February 2020 - The EU announces its negotiating mandate for the future relationship with the UK. The EU has planned seminars to discuss what its aims are and will publish these publicly unlike the UK Government.
11th March 2020 - Budget Day. Sajid Javid will deliver the Budget. This is a key date for all of civil society to pay attention to. First is any commitments on the future of funding and the UK Shared Prosperity Fund. Second, it will be an opportunity to see how seriously the Government is taking the demands of the new MPs it gained across the North. You can watch live at https://parliamentlive.tv/
June 2020 - According to the Political Declaration there will be a chance for high level talks between UK and EU to “take stock of progress”
1st July 2020 - Deadline for an application to extend the transition period. Johnson has repeatedly said he will not extend the transition period. We will wait to see how true this will be. Negotiating this deal will be far more complicated than the Withdrawal Agreement was and 11 months is widely considered an incredibly ambitious timescale
31st December 2020 - The Implementation Period ends. If a deal has not been agreed between the UK and EU then we will have a no-deal Brexit.
1 January 2021 - If an agreement has been achieved this is when the new deal will start.
This will be a busy and potentially chaotic 11 months for the Government. It will be important to keep a watch out for any policy hints on issues that will affect civil society such as funding, EU Settlement Scheme, and whether the Government intends to roll back rights and standards.
In Policy
Negotiation Time
UK reluctant to sign up to level playing field or non-regression clause
EU will push hard for both level playing field and non-regression clause
Unclear how this conflict will be resolved in negotiations
Over the past few weeks the Government has been outlining some things they will be looking for in the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Earlier this month the PM held a meeting with EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, where he stated that any future relationship “must not involve any kind of alignment or ECJ jurisdiction”. In the past week the Chancellor, Sajid Javid, repeated this sentiment to the FT “There will not be alignment, we will not be a ruletaker...and we will do this by the end of the year”.
This sets the scene for a clash in the talks between the UK and the EU. As we wrote in last week's bulletin the EU is keen for non-regression and a level playing field. They are concerned about the UK leaving the EU and then slashing labour rights and environmental protections to undercut the market of the EU27.
As Sam Lowe outlines in his piece for Encompass, the EU is likely to play hardball even if the UK does not diverge its rules. This will still have significant consequences for businesses for example “once the UK is outside of the EU’s food hygiene (SPS) regime, British exports of products of animal origin will face fresh regulatory controls at the EU border such as new paperwork and physical inspections – regardless of whether the UK applies the same food hygiene regime or not.” He rightly points out that the ability to diverge from the EU is not free of cost. This means that talks are going to be tense as the UK approaches them from a hard-line position of not wishing to sign up to any form of level playing field or non-regression clause.
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