Good afternoon,
Today the UK officially leaves the European Union, a momentous moment but likely not one that will be felt for years to come.
It is fair to say that the last few years have been turbulent for British politics with three years marked by uncertainty. As we’ve said many times before, the last three years has also demonstrated the fragility of the UK's (uncodified) constitution, weakness with our political system that has been bubbling under the surface for a long time has come to the fore. A good starting point is indeed how the devolved nations have been treated through the passage of Brexit legislation, it has been vexatious, to say the least. This is true in Northern Ireland where the failure to recognise the importance of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement early on led to the issues around the border becoming the most contentious one of all during first phase of the negotiations.What we’ve always been dependent on is the Executive behaving appropriately and not playing fast and loose with the conventions that underpins the UK’s constitution, Brexit has in some ways thrown that out the door. It feels like a long time ago now, but Johnson’s decision to prorogue Parliament for five weeks back in August to avoid Parliament stopping him from leaving without a deal was indeed an unprecedented move. Ultimately it wasruled unlawful by the Supreme Court, because his attempt to do so prevented Parliament from carrying out its scrutiny role of the Executive.
So after three years of political turbulence, where do we go next? In this week’s Bulletin we explore the road ahead as the UK negotiates its future relationship with the EU.
In Politics
Next steps
Future relationship negotiations are going to impact civil society
Negotiation decisions will impact rights and standards
New Parliament makeup requires new ways to influence policy
This week the European Parliament voted for the Withdrawal Agreement with 621 in favour and 49 against. This ratifies the Withdrawal Agreement on the EU side and means that the UK will leave the EU today at 11pm UK time today. After this the UK officially moves into the transition period where it will negotiate a future relationship with the UK. The transition period is a 11 months- negotiating a trade deal in that time frame is highly ambitious and does leave questions about whether it is indeed possible. What happens after those 11 months at is yet to be decided, but as Johnson has currently legislated to prohibit any extension to transition period, we could very well face leaving without a trade deal at the end of 2020. Sam Coates at Sky News has an excellent short film (10 minutes) speaking with a range of experts about what is to come next.
For civil society there are a lot of uncertainties to come in the next 11 months. We are still to hear much more about the establishment of a UK Shared Prosperity Fund and when the promised consultation will actually launch; there are ongoing issues with the EU Settlement Scheme and engagement of civil society by the Government has so far been poor. However these issues are all important and it is crucial that civil society continue arguing that it’s issues deserve to be heard while scrutinising the Government's policy where it can.
The big challenge for civil society is adjusting to the new political landscape, understanding the complexities and impacts of the future relationship, and being heard by policy makers all within the short time frame of the next couple of months. A difficult challenge for the sector but not unsurmountable.
The Government is reluctant to engage with civil society in a meaningful manner.
The Government has repeatedly demonstrated how it is reluctant to engage with the sector through the Brexit process. Going ahead it'll be critical that the Government properly engages with civil society organisations who will be impacted by Brexit and we will hold them to account on this. Civil society organisations need to think about where their potential influence of policy makers now lie.
Do you have a new Conservative MP in your area?
Is your council thinking about Brexit?
Do you have a devolved administration you can engage with?
Do you have a metro Mayor? (remember their elections are in May)
Do you know who is on your Local Enterprise Partnership? (The UKSPF is expected to be delivered by LEPs and Mayoral Combined Authorities in England and the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments are expected to manage the funds in the devolved nations)
What does civil society want from the future relationship?
Civil society has had success lobbying on pieces of legislation and the sector speaking with a unified voice has helped with this. As the Government continues to plough ahead with its policy agenda it will be crucial that the sector is clear in what is wants from the Government. Negotiations of the future relationship are going to be more difficult and complex than they were for the Withdrawal Agreement. The future relationship negotiated between the UK and the EU will encompass a wide range of issues. Of key importance to civil society is what happens to the rights and standards we currently enjoy. Depending on what is agreed, the UK Government could regress on them or have to guarantee they stay at current levels.
The sector ought to think about what it wants from the future relationship now and then push for them together.
Think about what immediately impacts you e.g. loss of EU funding
Get in touch with organisations doing thinking on your policy interests. For instance Equally Ours have been around the country discussing the UKSPF with organisations
Join organisations such as us (sign up here) who conviene roundtables and coordination efforts. Alternatively see if there is a local organisations in your area
The new political landscape means that there are no longer going to be frequent occasions where the Government is defeated or Parliament takes control of the timetable. However, the negotiation of the future relationship, with a Parliament full of new inexperienced MPs, is a valuable opportunity for civil society to get involved and shape what the future looks like.
How Parliament scrutinise the next stage of the Brexit negotiations?
DExEU closes today
Negotiations for future relationship to be done by dedicated taskforce in the Cabinet Office
Questions over scrutiny and Parliament involvement
Governance and scrutiny is going to continue to be important as the UK negotiates the future relationship with the EU. The Government is making big changes to its structure, and is rumoured to be making even bigger ones in a cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks.
The first big change is the abolishing of the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) on the 31st January, something the Institute for Government proposed in December, and replacing it with Taskforce Europe. Taskforce Europe will be placed in the Cabinet Office.
The first implication from abolishing DExEU is Stephen Barclay will lose his place in the Cabinet. This creates a scrutiny issue. Currently, Barclay has been held to account by the Commons select committee for exiting the European Union. The committee at the time of writing seems to be continuing even with DExEU closing and this week reelected Hilary Benn as chair. The taskforce is reporting to the Prime Minister, who will be significantly harder to get in front of a select committee. Johnson has previously refused to appear at the liaison committee three times.
This issue of accountability, and other key questions, was raised by Ruth Fox, Director of Hansard Society, ahead of Business questions to the Leader of the Commons. Valerie Vaz asked Jacob Rees-Mogg similar questions at the dispatch box. However, little assurance was given. He pointed out to Vaz that the PM is available every wednesday at Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) to be held account but PMQs is a poor venue for accountability on an issue as complex and wide ranging as the future relationship. Indeed it is primarily an opportunity for political point scoring on the issue of the day.
The exchange highlighted that the Government is happy to avoid accountability and scrutiny and has no plans to give Parliament a say on the negotiations of the future relationship either.
In Policy
Migration Advisory Committee
Report rejects ‘Australian style’ points-based system
Recommends reduction of income threshold from £30,000 to £25,600
Start of debate into post freedom of movement immigration system
The week the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) published a report into a points based immigration system which is the system that the Conservatives proposed to introduce in their manifesto to replace freedom of movement. A points-based system is commonly known as an ‘Australian style’ system. BBC Newsnight explored whether it might work for the UK here.
The MAC report rejected the ‘Australian style’ system and proposed that the current salary threshold for skilled migrants should be reduced from £30,000 to £25,600. This is the current threshold for skilled migrants from outside the EU. The key thing to consider here is that the Government is likely to extend the current system to new entrants from the EU when freedom of movement ends. A £30,000 threshold has significant implications for many job roles such as nurses and teachers but also for a whole range of roles in civil society.
The future immigration system is a key question for civil society. What the Conservative Government chooses to implement in the future relationship, such as the future immigration system, level playing field, non-regression of rights and standards, will have an impact on both the lives of communities organisations work with and employees. Problems will also arise as the Home Office intends to make future immigration systems digital, like in the EU Settlement Scheme, which would mean new migrants to the UK come up against the issues current applicants to EUSS have.
Travel advice
Government has started publishing post-transition travel advice
Government advice about concrete changes to people’s day to day activities starting to be released
The Government has now started to publish concrete advice about what will change about travelling to the EU when the transition period is over on the 1st January 2021. Lewis Goodall from BBC Newsnight has a thread on the changes here.
Changes to be aware of include:
You probably need health insurance as your EHIC might not work
Driving in the EU will require extra documentation
Mobile roaming might end depending on your phone network
Existing pet passports will not be valid (it takes 4 months to follow the new process)
You can find more details on the Government’s website. Over the coming months, and once a future relationship has been agreed, there will be more changes that affect people’s day to day. It will be worth keeping an eye out, especially for changes to EUSS, future immigration systems and data protection which could all affect daily running of organisations.
In Events
When Brexit is 'Done', how can we support Latin Americans with EU rights?
When: Friday 14th February, 09:30 to 16:00
Where: DLA Piper, 160 Aldersgate Street, Barbican, London, EC1A 4HT
When Brexit is ‘Done’, how can we support Latin Americans with EU Rights in the UK?
Join us for an insightful and thought-provoking day, to hear about the latest research and good practice to facilitate the participation of the EU Latin American community in the UK, in the context of Brexit.
The EULAMP Project, a collaboration between the Law Centres Network, IRMO, Southwark Law Centre and EDUGEP, is coming to an end in April 2020.
We are concluding the project through a reflective event on February 14th, whereby we will:
share lessons learnt
place findings in the wider context of systemic barriers and legal and social issues faced by Latin Americans in the UK
learn from other examples of good practice and
discuss the implications for the future.
Speakers include: Professor Cathy McIlwaine (King’s College London), Dr Helia Lopez Zarzosa, Ximena Vinueza (Housing Action Southwark & Lambeth), Lucila Granada (FLEX), Helen McCarthy (Middlesex University), Sue Lukes and others.
Lunch, refreshments and heart-shaped chocolates will be provided.
The event is free to attend, but we may need to charge a fee of £30 for cancelling after 7th February.
Tickets on Eventbrite here
Recommended Reading
The Government ‘Get Ready for Brexit’ campaign achieved very little. Details here
EU judges are keen to have powers to rule on post-Brexit terms. Details in the Times
Northern Irish loyalists warn of serious protests in Northern Ireland here
Tom McTague explores how the UK came to leave the EU in the Atlantic
Damian Wawrzyniak on how it feels to be an EU citizen in the UK with Brexit. In the Metro